By GARY A. WARNER/Oregon Capital Bureau
The fast-spreading omicron variant of COVID-19 has started pushing new cases up in Oregon, although not as steeply as other parts of the nation.
Weekly new cases of COVID-19 in Oregon were up 25% Monday compared to a week ago, according to the Oregon Health Authority. That’s a big jump for the state, but less than the more than 60% increase nationwide.
Oregon officials are waiting for a new forecast from the Oregon Health & Science University this week that will contain more recent data on the impact of omicron in other states and nations.
A key number — the percentage of tests that come back positive — rose to 9% in Oregon from 5% last week. Epidemiologists have said throughout the pandemic that anything above 5% creates the possibility of exponential growth of the virus.
The measure of omicron’s impact is made more difficult by a collection of current circumstances and trends. OHA did not report new cases for four days over the Christmas weekend, and will also not report counts over the New Year’s weekend. Official testing has fallen off both in Oregon and nationwide during the winter holiday season. Part of the reason may also be the growing popularity of home fast-test kits that can report a result in about 15 minutes.
While less accurate than the laboratory tests that can take two days or more before a report is available. Many pharmacies in Oregon report they have sold out the kits, which cost about $25 for two tests in each pack.
The delta variant continues to top COVID-19 case counts in Oregon, but for the first time in several weeks it is not the only variant to hit the charts. Omicron officially has accounted for just under 17% of new infections in cases surveyed by OHA during the week of Dec. 5.
But the sequencing of the virus make-up can take over a week, creating a lag time between signs of its presence in climbing caseloads, but yet to be confirmed by lab results.
The Oregon Health Authority reported 25 new deaths and 3,585 new cases of COVID-19 on Monday. The data covered four days, from Thursday to Sunday as reported by county health agencies between Dec. 23 and Dec. 26.
A number being watched closely to gauge the severity of the omicron virus is hospitalizations.
On Monday, hospitals across Oregon reported 381 COVID-19 patients, an increase of 23 from Sunday’s total. COVID-19 patients were in 94 intensive care unit beds, up two from Sunday. Oregon has 56 available adult ICU beds out of 649 total — about 9% availability. There are 311 available adult non-ICU beds out of 4,082, or about 8% availability.
Scientists have been watching the fast-moving variant as it spread from South Africa to Europe and the United States. Studies of the variant offer hope that while it will drive up case numbers beyond earlier spikes last winter and the arrival of delta in July, the severity of this incarnation of COVID-19 may be less severe than its predecessors.
Oregon Health & Science University originally forecast on Dec. 17 that hospitalizations in Oregon could top 3,000. But it revised the figure to 1,200 in its report last week based on additional data from Europe and the eastern United States. The forecast still shows the number of cases rising sharply to a peak around Feb. 9 and then descending equally fast. The sheer number of new infections caused by omicron will push Oregon’s hospitals to the brink of collapse, OHSU reported.
Hospitals are already feeling the impact of even the moderate rise in cases so far.
“Emergency departments in Oregon are under significant strain,” OHA’s report said on Monday.