By ZACH URNESS/Salem Statesman-Journal
Everyone that was complaining about how hot and dry Oregon was over the summer is about have their love for rain put to the test.
Northwest Oregon is expected to see rain almost every day beginning Wednesday and lasting for the next week, offering a possible preview of what’s forecast to be a wetter and cooler autumn and winter than normal, according to long-term forecasts.
That would be good news for a state coming off one of the hottest and driest periods on record and with 96% of the state still experiencing severe drought.
“If these projections come to fruition, it would go a long way toward alleviating or putting a big dent in the drought,” said Chris Burling, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Portland. “We are expecting more precipitation than normal in the short term but it will need to be a season-long trend to get us back to close to normal.”
Every long-term forecast from the National Weather Service’s Climate Predication Center gives the Pacific Northwest a good shot at wetter-than-normal winter, while temperature forecasts trend closer toward normal or slightly cooler than normal winter.
The weather that actually shows up is, of course, always a roll of the dice, Burling stressed.
“You don’t know until the systems actually show up what you’re going to get,” Burling said. “But I think it’s reasonable to expect a little more snow particularly in the higher elevations of the Cascades.”
In the last water year — which begins and ends Oct. 1 — Salem recorded 36.75 inches of rain, well below the average of 39.31. Portland was also below normal and has recorded four straight years with below-average precipitation.
The Willamette Valley would need to see precipitation of 115% of normal return to what’s considered normal. That would require about 51 inches of rain this water year.
“We’ll get a few breaks here and there, but once we hit Wednesday, we’re going to see a new system coming through every 12 to 24 hours with rain or showers,” Burling said. “We’re not expecting the type of rain that would bring flooding. It’ll be maybe a quarter inch here and there and maybe a few periods of heavy rain, but the systems are moving pretty fast.”