By DANA TIMS/YachatsNews.com
Lincoln County, apparently riding the wave of an influx of retirees, exceeded prior population forecasts and far surpassed slower-growing counties farther down the coast, according to 2020 Census numbers.
The county, as a whole, grew by 9.5 percent over the past decade, a rate just behind the statewide average of 10.6 percent. Lincoln County’s growth rate was also just under Clatsop County’s 10.9 percent rate, which grabbed the attention of some analysts.
“There is generally more job growth in Clatsop County, so the closeness of those two figures definitely surprised me,” said Erik Knoder, a regional economist with the Oregon Employment Department. “Both counties have lots of jobs in leisure and hospitality and both are fishing centers, but it’s still a little surprising we are keeping up better with Clatsop.”
Most of the reactions to Oregon’s 2020 Census numbers are still quick-hit, high-level assessments, since the more detailed statistics needed to craft much more refined pictures and predictions won’t be released until after the first of the year.
Still, when combined with prior forecasts and estimates, they create a picture of a Lincoln County population that will continue to grow fairly slowly until about 2045, when net in-migration will be roughly matched by the dying out of the county’s generally older inhabitants.
These and other Census-related statistics are published by Portland State University’s Population Research Center, which is chartered with preparing annual population estimates for Oregon cities and counties.
The center forecasts annual growth rates for cities and counties based on its own estimates, said Cindy Chen, the center’s population forecasts manager. In addition, the estimates are adjusted every 10 years “based on the decennial census to ensure the highest level of accuracy.”
“We adjust our forecast every four years for each county as new census and data become available,” she added. “The 2020 census will be implemented to the forecast starting this year.”
Some highlights of the 2020 numbers are:
- Yachats (44.1%) and Lincoln City (23.8%) outpaced all other Lincoln County cities in terms of growth. It’s important to note, however, that small overall numbers can appear to cause huge leaps. In Yachats’ case, its 304 new residents compared with the population in 2010 accounted for the 44.1% increase.
- Newport (2.7%), Toledo (2.3%) and Siletz (1.5%) registered the lowest population gains among the county’s seven cities. Waldport (10.6%) and Depoe Bay (8.4%) fell into the middle.
- Coastal counties south of Lincoln County trailed, as they have historically, in terms of population growth. Curry County (4.8%), led the way, followed by Douglas County (3.3%) and Coos County (3%).
Another historic trend continued to play out as counties farther inland – those closer to more vibrant jobs centers – outpaced the coast.
Polk and Benton counties, for instance, registered gains of 16 percent and 11.2 percent, respectively. Also unsurprising was the 25.7 percent population gain in Deschutes County, which is anchored by Bend, a tech-heavy, recreational center attracting new residents from around the country.
The more rural counties in Eastern Oregon, also unsurprisingly, were among the slowest-growing areas in the state. Wheeler, Malheur and Harney counties all grew by 1 percent or less, with Grant County showing the only actual population decline (-2.8%).
Growth will come from in-migration
Looking ahead, if Oregon’s population is going to continue to grow, it will have to rely on in-migration to do so, said Charles Rynerson, who coordinates the Population Research Center’s Oregon data center. That’s because the state’s birthrate has now fallen to 1.5 percent.
“In 2020, there were more deaths than births here,” he said. “Oregon will depend on in-migration if it’s going to grow.”
The same trend is playing out in Lincoln County, with one recent PSU center report saying, “The number of deaths continued to be greater than births through 2045, which follows the existing trend in the county where births remain relatively stable over time, while death increases significantly due to an aging population.”
Ethan Sharygin, the Population Research Center’s director, had two other takeaways from the new census numbers when it comes to Lincoln County.
The first focused on the county’s Hispanic population, which increased by 32 percent over 2010 census numbers. For whatever reason, Sharygin said, far more Hispanics self-identified as “white alone” in 2010; that is, citing only one race on their census responses. In 2020, by contrast, far more listed “white plus one other race.” The result tended to limit the increase in the county’s white population, while bumping up those identifying as Hispanic.
He also found it notable that both the county’s and state’s under-18 population actually gained a bit as a share of the total population. In most areas of the United States, particularly rural ones, the under-18 population tended to fall in 2020 when compared with 2010.
“The country is aging,” Sharygin said, “but Oregon is better poised to maintain a stable future workforce, assuming that most children stay.”
- Dana Tims is an Oregon freelance writer who contributes regularly to YachatsNews.com. He can be reached at DanaTims24@gmail.com