By BRYCE DOYLE/Oregon Public Broadcasting and YachatsNews
Fewer Lincoln County residents and Oregonians overall voted in this presidential election compared to the last one.
About 75 percent of registered Oregon voters returned their ballots during this year’s general election. In all, 2,308,256 Oregonians returned their ballots this year, which was 105,634 fewer voters than 2020, or a 5 percent decline, according to data recently released by the Oregon Secretary of State.
In Lincoln County, the turnout was 74.7 percent — down from a turnout of 81 percent in the November 2020 general election.
The state’s overall turnout rate remains higher than the national average of about 64 percent, but the decline this year is similar to other states, including those on the West Coast.
In California, 71 percent of the state’s registered voters cast their ballots, while in Washington it was 79 percent. Both totals were lower than 2020, when there was an especially high turnout, though Washington’s total this year was higher than in 2016.
Oregon’s turnout rate was lower than any other presidential election since at least 2004, and the first time since then that turnout has dropped below 80 percent. But it’s difficult to compare Oregon’s results this election year to other presidential elections.
That’s because of the state’s motor voter law. The system, which went into effect in January 2016, automatically registers people to vote when they acquire a state driver’s license or identification card. Since 2012, the last election before the new system, the percentage of eligible Oregonians registered to vote has increased from 75 percent to 94 percent.
“It’s a tricky apples to oranges sort of deal,” said pollster John Horvick, the senior vice president of nonpartisan DHM Research. He noted that, while lower than 2020, the turnout rate among eligible voters is nearing record highs.
Some of Oregon’s largest counties saw turnout decline compared to 2020. Multnomah, Washington and Marion counties each reported an 8 percent drop, while Clackamas’ turnout dropped 6 percent. Lane and Jackson counties each reported 5 percent declines. And in each of those counties, Democrats and Republicans each saw their number of registered voters decline, while non-affiliated voters increased.
Other states and urban areas across the country saw a shift to the political right, with Republicans taking control of Congress and the White House. But Oregon was different, and both parties reported similar turnout rates. Turnout among Democrats dropped from about 91 percent in 2020 to 87 percent this year, and for Republicans, 91 percent to 88 percent.
“Republicans just didn’t make any headway in this election,” said Horvick, who added: “Trump did a little bit better in Oregon than he did four years ago. But you didn’t see that shift in Oregon that you did nationally.”
How Lincoln County voted
The same trends statewide also appeared in Lincoln County.
- Fewer Lincoln County residents voted – 30,161 – in the November general election compared with the 30,968 who voted four years ago in the 2020 presidential general election.
- There were 40,382 Lincoln County residents eligible to vote in November compared with 38,426 registered in November 2020.
- This November’s turnout in Lincoln County was 74.7 percent. That compares to 81 percent in November 2020 and 80 percent in November 2016, the previous two presidential elections.
- Nearly 88 percent of the 13,453 Lincoln County residents who registered as Democrats voted. Nearly 87 percent of the 8,652 county residents who registered as Republicans voted, but just 55.4 percent of the 15,091 non-affiliated voters cast ballots. The county’s turnout rate for voters in nine minor parties ranged from 55 percent to 75 percent.
And, the older you are the more likely you are to vote.
- Just under 50 percent of voters aged 18-34 cast their ballots, 65 percent of voters age 35-49 cast ballots and more than 77 percent of voters age 50-64 voted. The largest age group of registered voters in Lincoln County were over 65 – they numbered 16,450 – and 88 percent of them voted.
Non-affiliated votes decline
Quinton SmithAmong non-affiliated voters — the state’s largest group, with more than 1.1 million registered voters — there was a steeper drop, from about 65 percent in 2020 to 57 percent this year. This group has seen its turnout decrease overall since 2004, similar to the state’s overall trend. However, the group’s size has grown since the implementation of the state’s motor voter system, which automatically registers voters as nonaffiliated.
Horvick, who researches voting patterns and posts about trends on social media, said this year’s results also show that Oregon’s electorate is growing older. For voters between the ages of 18 and 34, he noted, there were about 75,000 fewer ballots cast this year compared to 2020. For voters over the age of 65, there were about 48,000 more ballots cast this year.
Horvick said this trend could impact who politicians appeal to during elections and their policies. He noted that young Oregonians might have different opinions than elderly voters on issues like housing, policing and climate change.
“Folks who are older have a different set of priorities than those who are younger,” said Horvick.
About 60 percent of registered voters ages 18 to 34 voted this year, compared to 85 percent of voters over the age of 65.
- Portions of this story originally appeared Dec. 26, 2024 on Oregon Public Broadcasting.
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