By QUINTON SMITH/YachatsNews and GARY WARNER/Oregon Capital Bureau
YACHATS – With a new Covid variant surging through Oregon and vaccines now approved for children as young as six months, Sarah Bryant was looking for the easiest and quickest place to get her son vaccinated.
That’s why Tuesday, Bryant and 9-month-old Alder drove up from Florence and were one of the first in line at the Lincoln County Public Health’s monthly vaccination clinic in Yachats, where her son was vaccinated and 16 others received boosters.
“I just wanted to get him vaccinated as soon as possible,” Bryant said. “I’m definitely ready for this to be over … and it’s not until everyone gets vaccinated.”
Covid cases, led by the much more transmissible Ba.5 variant, are spreading rapidly through Lincoln County and Oregon.
Health officials said Wednesday that because of under-reporting by a factor of 30, they believe there are 3,000 active cases currently in a county with a population of 50,000.
“It’s everywhere,” said LCPH spokeswoman Susan Trachsel.
The omicron variant BA.5 is now the most dominant strain of Covid-19 in Oregon. This strain is more contagious than prior strains, the health department said in a special statement Wednesday, and that some studies show it may be possible to spread infection just by walking by someone.
State epidemiologist Dr. Dean Sidelinger told public health agencies this week that the Oregon Health Authority estimates – because of the prevalence of home testing kits — that there are 30 more cases for every one known positive Covid-19 case.
Trachsel said there were 100 newly reported Covid-19 cases for the week of July 3-9, leading to the estimate of 3,000 active cases of COVID-19 in Lincoln County due to underreporting.
The silver lining to the new surge is that it is not leading to a dramatic increase in hospitalizations in Lincoln County or Oregon. In Lincoln County there were 10 hospitalized in June, and five so far in July, according to Samaritan Health Services and the health department.
Across Oregon, the number hospitalized was 458 as of Wednesday, a slight increase the past two weeks but far below the number during the more dangerous variants last year.
The number of hospitalizations includes both patients admitted to hospitals because they were sick with Covid-19 and “incidental” cases of people who were in the hospital for other reasons but tested positive for the virus.
For most people, the Ba.5 variant’s symptoms are less severe – more like a cold that can be accompanied by muscle pain, cold sweats and fever, but can last from 3-10 days
“It’s very flu-like,” said Trachsel.
The statewide report
The OHA said the Ba.5 variant has a higher likelihood of being able to get past vaccinations or immunity due to exposure to previous infections. Officials said waning protection from vaccinations and earlier infections was resulting in breakthrough cases and second bouts of Covid-19.
“Community-level immunity has decreased since the early Omicron surge last winter,” Dr. Melissa Sutton, who leads the state’s efforts on respiratory viral pathogens, said in a statement. “Immunity from a Covid-19 infection may only last a few months.”
During the month of June, the OHA said 43.5 percent of the cases reported to it occurred in unvaccinated people and 56.5 percent occurred in people with at least one vaccine dose. Of all vaccine breakthrough cases in June, 41.1 percent occurred in people who were fully vaccinated and boosted.
The Oregon Health and Science University’s most recent forecast, issued July 7, projected hospitalizations would peak this week and that severe cases will gradually decline, falling back to levels under 200 by mid-August and returning to the lows seen in April by September 1.
Dr. Peter Graven, the chief Covid-19 forecaster at Oregon Health & Science University, said the current rise in infections is the seventh wave of Covid-19 since the virus appeared in Oregon in late February 2020.
For people in Oregon who are vaccinated and had boosters, the chances of severe illness from omicron variants are 2 percent and death 0.6 percent, according to the OHA.
The wider spread of omicron variants, the sometimes milder symptoms, and increased use of home testing make counting new infections difficult. Analysis of wastewater has become a more reliable gauge of the presence of the virus in a community. The percentage of tests that come back positive also gives a snapshot of the level of community spread.
During the two-week period of June 26 to July 8, test positivity was 15.1 percent, up from 13.6 percent in the previous two-week period. OHA officials have said throughout the pandemic that a positive test rate under 5 percent indicates a level of contagion that health officials can manage.
OHA suggestions
The Oregon Health Authority also suggested the following measures used earlier in the pandemic to keep the virus from spreading, including:
- Wearing masks indoors in public settings such as shops, gyms, and in restaurants when not eating.
- When possible, large events should be outdoors, where the breath of a possibly infected person has a much higher chance to dissipate than in enclosed spaces.
- People planning to visit elderly, immunocompromised or unvaccinated people should take at-home tests prior to getting together and a few days afterward.
- Any positive test results should be reported to a family physician or county health agencies who can assist in recommendations on quarantining or receiving treatment.
“During the month of June, the OHA said 43.5 percent of the cases reported to it occurred in unvaccinated people and 56.5 percent occurred in people with at least one vaccine dose. Of all vaccine breakthrough cases in June, 41.1 percent occurred in people who were fully vaccinated and boosted.”
Given this data, that reported cases of Covid are far higher among the vaccinated (57%) than among the unvaccinated (44%), what would be the purpose in getting vaccinated, especially if young and fortunate enough not to be suffering from a degenerative disease? The vaccine offers no protection of any kind from spreading corona and there’s an almost zero chance of dying with Covid for all but the very old and those who have 3 or more preexisting degenerative diseases. (If this doesn’t sound factually correct to you, please ask your doctor. Dr. Fauci and the CDC too has provided us with statistical information on the risk of dying from Covid. Yes, they’re big promoters of the vaccine, but they’ve given these facts out too, which seem to weaken the argument for getting the vaccination and boosters. At some point a long time ago, the goal switched from preventing hospitalizations and deaths—(circa Spring of 2020–to promoting a vaccine with extremely limited efficacy and very short lived protection of serious illness of approx 2 months, at best).
Mr. or Ms. “Name Withheld” misreads the data. Speaking of new Covid-19 infections statewide, OHA stated that 56.5% of the infected people had at least one vaccine dose and 43.5% were wholly unvaccinated. But “Name Withheld” is drawing her/his conclusion based on a group that is 100% sick. She/he overlooks the fact that 79.5% of the State’s population has been vaccinated, meaning that 20.5% of the population has not been vaccinated. Based on this fact, if the vaccine were wholly ineffective, you would expect that 79.5% of the victims would have received the (useless) vaccine and 20.5% of the victims would have been unvaccinated. But the actual percentage of vaccinated victims (56.5%) is better than 79.5%, so the vaccine, while not a complete shield, has had a positive effect.
The pandemic will not end until the percentage of the population that is infected falls to a very small number. We need fewer people to get sick and, if the vaccine helps reduce the rate of illness, which the above numbers show, then we need everyone to take advantage of it. We also need better vaccines, which researchers are working on. The mutating Covid-19 virus has been a moving target so our defenses need continuing adjustment. Throwing up your hands and saying “it’s no use” is not a defense.
First let’s clarify that the percentage of cases in people who are vaccinated and boosted is 41.1%. The 56.5% applies to those who have had at least one vaccine. (Does that mean that individuals vaccinated – but not fully – account for only 15.4% of cases?). Allegedly the vaccine minimizes the symptoms. I am fully vaccinated and boosted, and got covid anyway. Recently. I don’t want to say it wasn’t that bad – I’m afraid I’ll jinx myself. And although I still have some lingering symptoms – I can’t smell or taste things and I am extremely sleepy all the time. Not fatigued. Sleepy – I will say I’m glad it wasn’t any worse. However, that does not mean I’m 100% pro-vaccine. There are risks of injury – sometimes permanent – associated with getting any vaccine that are not made common knowledge. I did not previously know this. Unfortunately, I know it now. If the vaccine is administered improperly, they can nick a tendon or inject the needle and the vaccine into the shoulder joint, or bursa, among other things. It can cause damage that requires physical therapy, surgery, and in worst cases irreversible damage leaving a person with very limited use of their arm. In any case, the chances of full recovery are very low. During the pandemic the need for people to administer vaccines was so high, the government lifted some of the training requirements typically in place for people to administer vaccines. Further, they established that individuals administering vaccines could not be held liable for inflicting injury. Knowing that, and having been injured by an improperly administered vaccine, I wish I hadn’t gotten the booster. I was on the fence about getting vaccinated in the first place. I’m not convinced I made the right choice.
I’m not surprised by the high numbers at all. I see folks everywhere not bothering to mask up, many of whom may be spreading it. I ( knock on wood), have not been infected. It helped earlier to be fully vaxxed and boosted, and with the latest mutations that isn’t working anymore. They won’t admit it, but the shots are outdated. I mask up with a medical grade N-95, and wear glasses everywhere I am around others indoors, and no more indoor dining in restaurants for me. I have avoided crowds outside too. People may be done with Covid, but Covid is not done with us unfortunately.